Ukraine is not a member of NATO, but a number of its neighbors are. And if Russia's conflict with Ukraine spills into those member states, that could trigger an escalation because of a key pillar of the alliance — collective defense.
A part of the NATO treaty could turn Russia's invasion of Ukraine into a wider war
As Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, some U.S. officials and analysts were already warning of a possible escalation of the conflict into a wider war.
The trigger: Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
As the fighting continues, we unpack what Article 5 is, what could invoke it, and the places and people to watch.
What is it?
Article 5 is a key pillar of the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty — also known as the Washington Treaty — and is based on the principle of collective defense. It means that an attack on one member of NATO is deemed to be an attack on all.
Ukraine is not a member of NATO, but a number of its neighbors are.
"There are 30 members of NATO, and we have given all of them Article 5," said Mary Elise Sarotte, a professor of history at Johns Hopkins University and author of Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate.
"And I don't think Americans understand this — that means we are obligated by treaty to basically defend them or go to war if they are attacked by Russia. We are obliged to treat an attack on Estonia as if it were an attack on Chicago by treaty."
"So, if there is an Article 5 incursion, this could very quickly become not Ukraine's war, but our war."
The article states:
Article 5 has been invoked once — in response to the 9/11 attacks.
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